Cumin Seeds Sowing Situation and Price Trend Outlook in India (2025–26)
Cumin (jeera) is one of India’s most strategically important spice crops, with major production in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Farmers typically sow cumin between late October and early November, aiming for a February harvest. However, this season’s sowing timeline was significantly disrupted, and that has both production and price implications for the coming months.
1. Delayed Sowing: A Quick Recap
This year’s sowing was delayed by nearly a month due to unfavourable weather, including erratic rainfall and unstable temperatures. As a result:
- Many farmers switched to other rabi crops like wheat, mustard, coriander, and isabgol due to the narrower sowing window.
- Acreage under cumin is expected to be lower than last year.
At the same time, an abundant carry-forward stock from the 2025 crop reduces immediate supply pressure. If climatic conditions remain favourable through the winter, the crop production could still be balanced despite fewer hectares under sowing.
2. Cumin Price Trends: Past and Present
Understanding price trends helps farmers, traders, and buyers make informed decisions. Here’s how cumin prices have behaved:
A. Historical Market Movements (2025)
- On the NCDEX futures exchange, jeera prices for the December 2025 contract have mostly traded in the range of ₹19,700 to ₹21,700 per quintal during late 2025. (Investing.com India)
- Over the past 12 months, cumin futures prices have declined by roughly 14–18%, reflecting subdued demand and large existing stocks. (Investing.com भारत)
- Weekly and monthly movements have been relatively modest, with occasional short-term upticks. (Moneycontrol Hindi)
B. Spot/Mandi Prices in 2025
Domestic mandi (spot) prices across key producing states show variation:
- In Gujarat (Unjha), prices ranged roughly from ₹15,000 to ₹23,000 per quintal in the early sowing period. (Commodity Online)
- Across Rajasthan, average mandi rates during early December 2025 hovered near ₹16,800–₹18,000 per quintal. (Commodity Online)
- Other markets recorded similar price bands depending on grade and quality. (Commodity Online)
Retail prices at the consumer end also show variability, typically influenced by supply, regional demand, and quality – for example, retail prices can range near ₹235 per kg at some outlets. (Hyperpure)
C. Comparison with Last Year and Past Averages
While complete long-term spice board data into 2025 is limited, historical seasonal prices show that cumin generally sees peaks around pre-harvest tightness and dips as fresh crop arrives (usually mid-Mar). Recent NCDEX data suggests the current levels are moderate compared to past 52-week highs (around ₹25,700/qtl). (Investing.com भारत)
3. What the Price Trends Mean for the Next 2–3 Months
Stabilising Price Expectations
Given the combination of:
- Large carry-forward stock from the previous season
- Delayed and potentially reduced acreage
- Moderate domestic demand and export conditions
- Historical price stability in recent weeks
Market analysts generally expect the cumin price range to remain stable to slightly volatile, rather than sharply bullish over the next 2–3 months.
Reasons for price stability:
- Carry-forward stocks provide a buffer, easing supply tightness.
- The market has already priced in delayed sowing.
- Fresh arrivals are expected from Feb–Mar 2026, which could ease any seasonal price pressure.
Potential price risk factors:
- Adverse weather during crop growth (diseases, mid-Jan frost) could tighten supply and support prices.
- Strong export interest, particularly from Middle East and West Asia buyers, could shift the balance upward if orders pick up.
Considering current data and typical seasonal patterns, cumin prices are likely to remain within ₹19,000–₹22,000 per quintal range in late 2025 and early 2026 unless market dynamics change significantly, such as unexpected logistical disruptions or stronger export demand.
4. Final Outlook: Balanced, Not Bullish
This season presents a mixed market scenario:
📉 Downside Pressure:
- Reduced sowing acreage but
- Large unsold stocks dampening sharp price rises
📈 Upside Triggers:
- Potential strong demand later in the season
- Weather shocks affecting standing crop
As a result, the 2–3-month price outlook remains stable, with sideways movement more likely than sharp increases or dramatic declines — barring significant climatic or global demand changes.
5. Tips for Market Participants
For Farmers:
- Monitor weather closely; protect crops from moisture and disease.
- Consider forward contracts if offered prices in early 2026 rise above current levels.
For Traders/Buyers:
- Gradual procurement may help manage price risk.
- Keep an eye on export demand changes — particularly from key markets like the Middle East.
For Consumers:
- Household prices may show moderate movement, largely following mandi and retail trends.
